Ole Miss vs Mississippi Odds
Rivalry week often includes many high-profile games between the top 25 teams. The average college football fan knows that the Egg Bowl always provides the highest form of entertainment.
The consequences of the game could be extreme, as was the case in 2019. Dubbed “Pee, Miss, and Double Denial”, this game marked the end of two coaching regimes and the beginning of the Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin eras in Mississippi and Ole. Miss respectively.
Ole Miss leads this series 64-45-6 as Kiffin has surpassed Leach in the previous two seasons.
Both Mississippi State and Ole Miss need wins to climb the directional bowl ladder. In our latest Brett McMurphy bowl projections, the Bulldogs play in the Las Vegas bowl and Ole Miss plays in the new brand’s Cheez-It Citrus Bowl.
Considering the Rebels know that Kiffin could be poached, this could be the last Thanksgiving egg bowl iteration between these two trainers.
VIOLATION: #OleMiss According to sources, HC Lane Kiffin plans to step down as Rebels coach on Friday and head to Auburn to become the Tigers’ next head coach.
Sources say the Tigers have not officially offered the job to anyone yet.
So Lane to Auburn is happening. History coming soon.
— Jon Sokoloff (@JonSokoloff) November 22, 2022
Leach is set to end his third season at Starkville with a third straight bowling game. In addition to winning the rivalry, the Bulldogs are looking to take third in the SEC West with a tiebreak over Ole Miss.
There weren’t many surprises on the schedule for Mississippi State, who lost both games as underdogs and won seven of nine games as favorites. Every game in Starkville was overdrawn, while every away game went to waste.
Quarterback Will Rogers added several touchdowns against East Tennessee State last week, giving the juniors 32 points to five interceptions.
In the last two games, including against the Georgia defense, Rodgers didn’t put up a decent loss of play. The previous five games have been choppy for the quarterback, as he had nine decent losing games that resulted in a pair of interceptions against Auburn and Kentucky.
Leach’s “Air Raid” concept delivers 70 percent success rate at an average target depth of six yards.
Four players with different skills have at least 50 targets, including Jo’kuavius Marks running back. Wide receiver Rara Thomas was the most explosive target at 2.1 yards on the route.
Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett has been running a 3-3-5 formation for the third season. The state’s performance in dealing with rushing and putting pressure on quarterbacks is generally poor, but the Bulldogs defense is in the top 25 in terms of Early Downs success.
The top 40 rankings in coverage and finishing drives show the Bulldogs are willing to give up midfield before straining the opposition’s scoring opportunities.
Edge Tyrus Whit is a name to watch defensively, putting in almost twice as much pressure as any other defender this season.
Long gone are the days when the Mutt Corral used a running variation that allowed for an even mix of ground and air play. Quarterback Jackson Dart uses the same formation, but the Rebels’ rush rate has increased to 63%.
The two-headed monster of Quinshawn Judkins and Zach Evans combined for 24 touchdowns and rushed for over 2,200 yards.
Both Judkins and Evans are throwing over 3.5 yards after contact. Only five runners in FBS have made more missed tackles than Judkins, placing emphasis on tackles and defensive line yards for the Bulldogs.
Trouble kicks in when Ole Miss is behind schedule as the Rebels are in the explosive team’s top 25 in standard downs but in the bottom 25 in passing.
Dart has faced pressure in more than a third of his tackles this season as his adjusted completion percentage has dropped 25%.
With the bar low since Kiffin’s arrival, the defense continued to improve throughout the transition from DJ Durkin to Chris Partridge and Maurice Cram.
The Rebels have improved to be in the top 40 teams in pass rush, as well as in the top 10 in limiting the explosiveness of the rush. The scheme launched in Ole Miss may be easy in the box, but the rebels have succeeded in limiting explosive plays.
Despite the improvement in defense, the execution in the red zone was poor. Ole Miss dropped to 123rd in the red zone rankings, allowing 37 out of 40 attempts by the opponent to end with points.
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Match Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Mississippi are statistically the same:
Mississippi State Assault vs. Ole Miss Defense
Ole Miss Assault vs. Mississippi State Defense
Pace of play / Other
|SP+ special teams||69||34|
|Seconds per game||25.3 (42)||20.7(2)|
|Haste speed||30.1% (130)||63.4% (9)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Ole Miss State vs. Mississippi State Picks Predictions
The first handicap is centered on Mississippi State’s top seven stopping Ole Miss’s ground attack. Despite having a front of three, the Bulldogs are in the top 30 on the Stuff Rate.
Trouble arises behind the line of scrimmage as Mississippi State ranks 70th in line yards and 95th in explosive head. Ranked 55th in tackles in the national rankings, the Bulldogs can take on Judkins and Evans half a dozen times and also allow for the same number of explosive runs.
For Mississippi State to expand the offense and take advantage of Ole Miss’s poor defense in the red zone, Rodgers must find his targets in the inside pass.
The Rebels have two defenders who are ranked among the top 200 cover defenders by the PFF. Deantre Prince has been a quality cornerback this season, throwing seven passes in a zone-heavy formation. All defensemen’s attention will be on second-highest-scoring defenseman AJ Finley, who has snapped more snaps at cornerback in the previous four games.
Action Network predicts the Egg Bowl will favor Ole Miss by six points. Heavy steam hit the Mississippi market in early bets as rumors of Kiffin’s move to Auburn persisted.
The Bulldogs will give the explosives to the Ole Miss runners. But with better third down defense and numbers in the red zone, scoring will be easy.
As far as Mississippi State is concerned, Ole Miss’s ability to hit short-route zones places emphasis on Ole Miss’s ability to tackle the ball. The Rebels were above average in limiting explosive play, especially on long downs and distances.
This game will be pushed to the limit, but the Bulldogs have the speed they need to cash in another one away. Look for Ole Miss field goals or less as both teams will be competing for points in the first half.
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